Interference Forecasting Methodology
Vega's interference forecasting system combines orbital mechanics, spectrum allocation data, and geospatial analysis to predict when and where satellite interference will occur. Our methodology is transparent, validated, and built on industry-standard tools.
Step 1: Real-Time Orbital Tracking
Every forecast starts with accurate orbital data. We pull Two-Line Element (TLE) sets from authoritative sources, which are updated daily and propagated forward in time using industry-standard orbital mechanics libraries. These calculations account for atmospheric drag, gravitational perturbations, and solar radiation pressure.
Step 2: Frequency Conflict Identification
Not all satellites interfere with each other—only those operating in overlapping frequency bands. We map satellites to their frequency allocations using regulatory databases and public filings.
Our system cross-references these sources to identify which satellites share spectrum with your tracked assets. Only confirmed frequency overlaps are flagged as potential interferers.
Step 3: Coverage Analysis
Once we know which satellites could interfere, we calculate their ground coverage footprints:
- Field of View Cones - Each satellite's antenna beam pattern is modeled as a cone projecting to Earth's surface
- Geospatial Tessellation - Earth's surface is divided into equal-area cells for precise coverage mapping
- Timestep Analysis - Coverage is computed at 60-second intervals over 7-day windows
Step 4: Interference Event Detection
Interference occurs when two satellites with overlapping frequencies have overlapping ground coverage. For each timestep, we:
- Calculate your satellite's coverage footprint
- Calculate each potential interferer's footprint at the same moment
- Find the intersection—regions covered by both satellites simultaneously
- Measure the intensity of overlap (how many interferers, for how long)
The result: a time-series forecast showing exactly when and where interference will occur, measured in geographic regions and duration.
Step 5: Visualization and Alerts
Raw interference data isn't useful without context. Vega transforms computational results into actionable intelligence:
- WebGL Heatmaps - See interference intensity across Earth's surface in real-time
- Time-Series Charts - Track interference levels over multi-day windows
- Alert Thresholds - Get notified when interference exceeds acceptable levels
Validation and Accuracy
We don't just compute predictions—we validate them against reality:
- TLE Freshness - Orbital data is refreshed daily; predictions degrade beyond 7 days
- Confidence Scoring - Frequency mappings are tagged with confidence levels based on data source quality
- Known Limitations - We're transparent about what we can't predict (solar storms, satellite maneuvers, intentional jamming)
Our goal isn't perfection—it's useful, honest forecasts that help you make better operational decisions.
Questions About Our Methodology?
We're happy to discuss our approach in detail or provide technical documentation for your team.